Thursday, October 21, 2004


If you listen to the news on the radio or watch it on TV the only thing you will hear is that it's a "tight race". Do they ever say how tight it is? Nope. They just mention that it's tight and go on to talk about the lastest scare tactic by the Kedwards campaign. Over at Real Clear Politics they have a poll roundup that they average out to try and get an idea. The reason you don't hear any numbers is because Bush is up big in a few polls. Some polls have it tied or within the margin of error. At this point Bush is up by an average of 2.8 in the polls.

I go to Polipundit to get some good analysis about the polls. But I am of the opinion that this election is so different from ones in the past that the polls can't be accurate. I think that there are so many more people voting this year than in the past that there's no way that polsters can call the right people. I could be wrong obviously. But I think that what's more indicitave of the voter sentiment are the internals in the polls. Where Bush holds commanding leads on Questions like "Who is the better leader?" or "Who seems more honest?". It's like at the end of the debates most people thought Kerry the better debater but considered Bush more genuine and qualified to lead the country. Go figure.

Michael Barone has some excellent poll commentary as well.