Tuesday, November 08, 2005


It is now 9:45, I have jst gotten back home and I have not heard any election returns either on the radio or the internet. I am going to make a prediction. I think Kaine wins by 5 percentage points. As much as I would like to be wrong on this wone I'm pretty sure I will not be. My reasoning is as follows. Kaine has the momentum, polls show a double digit Kilgore lead evaporating over the summer. I don't usually trust the acuracy of polls, however I believe they are good for tracking momentum if nothing else. I also think that some of the negative ads that Kilgore ran could drive moderates to Kaine. Also the population increase in NOVA, coupled with the downturn in the Presidents approval rating point to a Kaine advantage.

It will be disapointing if Kaine wins, Virginia is clearly a conservative state. Kaine running conservative sounding ads confirms this. However those ads coupled with Warner's popularity as a moderate/conservative sounding govenor could be a winning formula. I think Kaine has not been honest about who he is and what kind of Govenor he will be. The fact that he runs an ad saying essentially "my principles tell me that this is correct, however I will not make laws to that effect because I realize it will offend a lot of people" indicate this. The one thing that the President said yesterday that I thought really resonated was that Kilgore didn't have to consult a poll to tell him how to govern.

So yes I think that we are in for four more years of higher taxes and liberal style government. I just hope that the senate can combat himm, even more so I hope that I am wrong.